Africa won’t get Indian rice this year

S Venkateshwari
The most widely consumed grains, wheat and rice, have experienced an unanticipated shock over the previous two weeks of July 2023. West Asia and Africa's developing nations will be particularly hard struck. The government cannot afford to disregard the interests of the great majority of people for whom wheat and rice are staple foods, even though economic theorists may find fault with India's choice to restrict the export of white, non-basmati rice (in July 2023) and wheat (in May 2022).
Since march 2022, bad weather has demonstrated that India's food surpluses are just minimal, placing the country in difficult straits. india would take all possible measures to curb domestic food inflation. And other grains have also contributed to the rise in food prices. The costs of pulses and vegetables, particularly tomatoes, have also been hurting indian consumers' wallets.
Estimate of food supply and consumption

Future production (supply) and demand (consumption) projections can be used to forecast food surpluses. The annual projections of the demand for food commodities are not released by the indian government.
A working group was established by the Niti Ayog in July 2016 to determine the amount of rice, wheat, maize, other coarse cereals, pulses, food grains, oilseeds, sugarcane, fruits, vegetables, and animal products including milk, meat, eggs, and fish that would be needed. Its mission was to forecast domestic and export demand.
In february 2018, the working group delivered their report. So, more than five years ago, an official estimate of how much food was consumed was created. Data is so dated.
The demand for rice was estimated to be 109.28 million tonnes (mt) in 2021–2022, while the demand for wheat was estimated to be 97.12 mt. In a monthly report titled "World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates" (WASDE), the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates the supply and demand for various agricultural commodities in a number of different nations.
The WASDE forecasts indian wheat output and consumption at 113.5 mt and 108.10 mt, respectively, for the years 2023–2024.
The demand for rice is 110.45 mt, while the estimated production is 129.47 mt. 22.03 mt of rice and 1 mt of wheat have been forecast for export by WASDE.
Export from India

Despite the export of wheat being prohibited, 4.69 mt of the commodity was shipped abroad in 2022–2023 as the government permitted the shipment of grain for which letters of credit had been obtained prior to the ban's implementation in May 2023. The administration could permit certain exports based on diplomatic concerns this year as well.
4.50 mt of basmati rice were exported from india in 2022–2023. 7.8 mt of the 17.78 mt of non-basmati rice were parboiled. Several underdeveloped nations rely on indian rice to meet their dietary needs.

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